The Afueratarian Moment

Taking the Department of Government Efficiency Seriously

We have a once in a generation opportunity to shrink the government. If we succeed, this will allow the United States to lead the world into the 22nd century. 

Before I go any farther,  I want to give readers the opportunity to know where the phrase “afueratarian” comes from. It is based on the now-famous clip of Argentinian President Javier Milei going through a white board with placards for government agencies, tossing them aside one by one shouting “Afuera!” (Spanish for “outside” or simply “out” in this case.) I coined the phrase “Afueratarian” as an homage to this scene, and to evoke the idea that we need a smaller government that does a few things well, not the ever-increasing behemoth we have today.

Readers may wonder if this was a stunt. Commentators at the time of Milei’s election predicted disaster. But in reality, disaster may be what was averted. And the United States should take heed.

When Milei took office in December of 2023, hyperinflation was rampant in Argentina. The government spending as a percentage of GDP was skyrocketing, and the currency was in rapid devaluation. True to his word, he invoked an aggressive austerity program. Of the 19 government ministries he inherited, 10 really were “afuera.” Reams of regulations regarding the economy and hiring were removed. Inflation, over 200% in the year prior, was down to 2.7% in September of 2024. It is not all smooth sailing. Poverty is up, and his popularity has taken a hit. But this is the path he campaigned on, with the promise that the certain collapse Argentina was headed toward could not only be averted but traded for a boom in both the economy and personal autonomy.

AfuerAmerica

This brings us back to the US. Take a look at the percentage of government spending relative to GDP. The US is in red, Argentina in green. The recent trend has been scarily similar, if slower, to the crisis that enveloped Argentina. Also, consider the era from 1980-2000. The years of Reagan through Clinton are the only major exception to relentless growth. I don’t find it a coincidence that the deregulation unleashed by Reagan led to the boom that grew the US economy to unprecedented dominance.

We can do that again. In fact, I’d argue we must do that again. If the US government continues on its current trajectory, it will be heading toward an Argentinian-style disaster. The world can afford Argentina some time to get its act together. Not so if there is a US collapse. 

Enter DOGE

The Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE (in a humorous reference to a cryptocurrency of sorts popularized by Elon Musk). That same Musk and Vivek Ramaswammi are leading this effort. I will admit that I have some skepticism that they really can downsize government (I have worked in government, and the one job it seems to do well is grow government.), but I want them to succeed. Bigly.

Government tends to work like a ratchet. It goes in a single direction (growth). Constituencies develop around spending, and there is always a sad story about a person who will be hurt if a program vanishes. Unions organize. Non-profits lobby. The recipients of government rents in the private sector really lobby. The people who want to keep the benefit will always be more motivated than the diffuse mass of us who want a smaller government.

The Afueratarian Moment

Unless. Unless a critical mass is reached. And perhaps we are at that moment. A time when the ratchet of government can release and across the board cuts can be a reality. It is a paradox of government, but slowing the growth of a program to slightly less than inflation can be harder than just saying “Afuera!” Will some good get thrown out with the bad? Yes. Will things potentially worsen before they get better? Possibly. But I’d argue this is by far the better long-term option.  

The US has a choice, and we don’t have much time before even this choice is taken from us. We can continue the current path accelerating growth of government and entitlements and the decline in economic vitality. We can do our best to entertain ourselves and make the collapse a relatively comfortable one, at least for a while. Or we can act. We can cut. We can eliminate the mountains of bureaucracy that stifle innovation and construction. 

And then we can grow. I sense, for the first time in ages, some optimism. I see reduction in government as taking the shackles off of our future. Musk talks about becoming an interplanetary species. In my opinion, that only happens if the US is there to facilitate a global order and economy to make space flight possible. And that can only be done if the US can keep growing when the rest of the world is shrinking. 

That vision of the future only happens after Afuera.

¡Viva Afuera! 

Go DOGE.

Cheers y’all.